Monday, June 15, 2009

Current Scenario for New Construction in Ocean Shores

New construction sales in Grays Harbor County are certainly not immune to our economy. In fact, it's pretty obvious here that not only are sales down, but selling prices are also down as well. What's this mean? In means what we already know, buyers are scared to pull the trigger on writing offers because buyers are scared that they're going to lose their job or the ecomony will totally collapse, etc. It's what they're fed by the media so of course they believe it.

What I believe it means is that now is the time to buy as builders are now flexible with their pricing in order to get the inventory of their homes sold and so they can get on with building more as we all wait for the next boom to happen. Here are some numbers from the NWMLS:

Year to date New Home Sales

1/1/09 - 6/15/09 - Grays Harbor County

Pacific Beach, 1 Sale 

Ocean Shores, 13 Sales

Ocean City, 1 Sale

McCleary, 6 Sales

Westport, 1 Sale

Current Pendings

Pacific Beach, 1

Ocean Shores, 5

Aberdeen, 1

McCleary, 1

Breaking down the pending homes in Ocean Shores....

1  little cabin is pending at $137K

2 little 2/2 cabins at $155K average

1 Canal 2/2/2 at $121K

1 Interior 3/2/2, 1500 sq ft at $178,500

Breaking down the Solds in Ocean Shores....

4 little 2/1 cabins have sold for an average price of $149,875

1 little 2/1 cabin with a garage sold for $169,000.

2 little 2/2 cabins have sold for an average price of $150,500 (one bad resale/firesale)

1 2/2/1 little cabin for $172K

2 3/2/2 interior ramblers for an average of $181,700

2 2/2/2 small lake chalets for an average of $225K.

The numbers are Pretty dreary.... I know of two more sales that are coming in today (1 small lake chalet 2/2/2 for $230K and one smal 2/2/2 interior for $165K). It's hard to predict where the action is going to be this summer. It seems that all areas of new construction are getting action, the hope is that once July hits, all areas will continue to get it. 

Current inventory of New Construction: IT'S TOO HIGH!

47 New Homes on the market.

12 of those are Presales

35 are either completed or under construction

Out of the 35 New Homes

9 are 2/1 Little Cabins

1 Little 3/1

5 are 2/2 Little Cabins

3 are 2/2/2 Little Cabins

2 are 2/2/2 Interior Homes

7 are 3/2/2 Interior Homes

2 are 2/2/2 Freshwater Homes

2 3/2/2 Freshwater Homes

1 4/3/2 Interior

1 2/2.50/2 Small Lake Home

1 3/2/2 Bayfront

1 3/2/2 Ocean Front

2008 Comparison Numbers

Year to date New Home Sales 1/1/08 - 6/15/08 - OCEAN SHORES

27 New Homes sold in 2008 for an average price of $212,207/Average $/SqFt; $160.25, Average SqFt: 1,311, Average CDOM: 194 Days

2009 Comparison Numbers

Year to date New Homes Sales 1/1/09-6/15/09

13 New Homes sold in 2009 for an average price of $192,535/Average $/SqFt, $159.37, Average SqFt 1,097, Average CDOM: 142 Days

Conclusion: Inventory is too high. Builders need to keep building to earn a living. A high inventory will keep prices down. Best case is for a super summer with lots of sales. This certainly wouldn't be surprising since nearly 35% of all real estate sales out here on the beach take place during July & August.

Builder Caution Reflects Fragile Housing Market in June

Builder Caution Reflects Fragile Housing Market in June

WASHINGTON, June 15 - Indicating that single-family home builders remain cautious and concerned about the fragile state of today's economy and housing market, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) declined one point to 15 in June.

"The outlook for home sales has improved somewhat in recent months, due largely to implementation of the first-time home buyer tax credit and gains in housing affordability," said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. "However, looking forward, home builders are facing a few headwinds, including expiration of the tax credit at the end of November; a recent upturn in interest rates; and especially the continuing lack of credit for housing production loans."

"As expected, the housing market continues to bump along trying to find a bottom," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "Meanwhile, builders are taking their cue from consumers, who remain uncertain about the economy and their own situation. Builders are also finding it difficult to complete a sale because customers cannot sell their existing homes."

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two out of three of the HMI's component indexes were unchanged in June, including the index gauging current home sales, which held at 14, and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers, which held at 13. Meanwhile, the index gauging expectations for the next six months declined a single point, to 26.

Regionally, the decline was entirely focused in the South, which is the nation's largest housing market. There, the HMI declined 3 points to 15, while the rest of the regions posted gains. The Northeast had a one-point gain to 20, the Midwest, a one-point gain to 15, and the West, a two-point gain to 14.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be accessed online at: More information on housing statistics is also available at: 

Saturday, June 13, 2009

NKBA's Top 10 Design Trends for 2009

Click HERE to see all the new trends for 2009!

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Americans are moving on up to smaller, smarter homes

USA Today ran a story about a new trend in American home buying. Click "HERE" to see the entire article.

Brand New Beach Homes

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